Global cocoa prices are projected to plunge by more than half in 2026 after reaching historic highs in recent years, according to the latest Commodity Markets Outlook by the World Bank.
The report forecasts that cocoa prices will fall from about $7.80 per kilogram in 2025 to roughly $3.80 per kilogram in 2026, representing a 51.3 percent decline, before edging up slightly to around $4.20 per kilogram in 2027.
The sharp drop reflects expectations that global cocoa supply will gradually recover after severe shortages that drove prices to record levels over the past two years.
The outlook forms part of the World Bank’s April 2026 Commodity Markets Outlook, which anticipates a broad cooling in beverage commodity prices.
The report shows the beverage price index which includes cocoa and coffee falling significantly in 2026 after surging in 2024 and 2025.
According to the projections, cocoa was among the commodities that experienced extraordinary price spikes during the recent supply crisis.
However, improving production conditions and a gradual adjustment in global supply chains are expected to ease market pressures going forward.
Despite the projected decline, the report suggests cocoa prices may remain relatively elevated compared with historical averages, reflecting continued volatility in agricultural commodity markets.
For major cocoa-producing countries such as Ghana and Côte d’Ivoire which together account for the majority of global cocoa supply the expected drop in prices could have implications for export earnings and farmer incomes if production rebounds strongly.
The report also notes that broader commodity markets are likely to remain sensitive to global economic growth trends, geopolitical developments and weather-related shocks that affect agricultural output.
